Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

新兴市场企业国际化、组织冗余与创新绩效

国际化是新兴市场企业克服后发劣势、实现创新追赶的重要战略选择。基于组织学习理论,以中国具有国际扩张行为的高技术上市企业为研究样本,探索了新兴市场企业国际化水平对创新绩效的影响以及组织冗余的调节效应。结果表明:(1)新兴市场企业国际化广度对创新绩效具有正向影响,国际化深度对创新绩效具有正向影响;(2)沉淀性冗余在国际化广度与创新绩效之间具有负向调节效应,在国际化深度与创新绩效之间具有负向调节效应;(3)非沉淀性冗余在国际化广度与创新绩效之间具有正向调节效应,在国际化深度与创新绩效之间具有正向调节效应。最后,基于研究结论对新兴市场企业国际化和创新管理提出研究启示。     

基于压裂效果评价的页岩气井井距优化研究

针对页岩气藏最优井距很大程度上受限于压裂效果后评估的问题，开展了多段压裂水平井改造参数解释研究，并在此基础上开展井距优化。通过建立的渗流数学模型明确页岩气井生产时地层中存在的流态，形成基于线性流识别和特征线诊断技术的压裂参数解释方法，并对参数解释的不确定性进行了分析论证。之后通过定义百米地层累产气进行均匀压裂情况下井距优化。研究表明，地层进入边界控制流后能准确确定裂缝半长，且不影响气井的产能预测；井距的决定性因素是裂缝半长，二者之间的比例关系受SRV内外区相对物性和裂缝导流能力的影响，据此可指导现场井距优化及开发技术政策制定。     

互联互通蓝图下人工智能与中国经济转型升级研究

基于互联互通蓝图下我国人工智能的发展现状以及我国经济转型升级的现状,研究了人工智能技术与经济之间的正作用——促进生产、提供新经济增长动力、增加高水平就业岗位并改善工作环境、解决社会治理问题、促进国际友好往来,也分析了二者的负作用关系——减少了传统岗位、增大投资风险、冲击传统管理方式、增大中等收入陷阱的可能、带来法律规章制度的漏洞。提出区域治理保持与时俱进、建立技术基金会、注重人才培养与人员培训、企业承担其角色、重视文化与科技的关联的政策建议。     

青光眼生物力学研究进展

 青光眼是全球第一位不可逆性致盲眼病，高眼压是视功能损伤的主要危险因素，降眼压是目前青光眼治疗的主要手段。生物力学问题是青光眼致病机制、预防和治疗研究的重要内容。小梁网房水外流阻力增大是眼压升高的主要因素，眼压升高将导致虹膜变形、瞳孔阻滞、眼前房房水流场改变、视神经纤维层及筛板厚度变薄、视功能损伤等。本文从眼压测量、房水流场测量、视功能损伤等方面综述了近年来青光眼生物力学的研究进展。     

A new twist to the No Miracles Argument for the success of science

J. D. Trout has recently developed a new defense of scientific realism, a new version of the No Miracles Argument. I critically evaluate Trout's novel defense of realism. I argue that Trout's argument for scientific realism and the related explanation for the success of science are self-defeating. In the process of arguing against the traditional realist strategies for explaining the success of science, he inadvertently undermines his own argument.     

TiOF2光催化降解甲基橙的影响因素研究

通过溶胶-凝胶法制备氟氧钛（TiOF₂）花状纳米球，采用X射线粉末衍射仪（XRD）、扫描电子显微镜（SEM）、傅里叶红外光谱分析仪（FT-IR）和固体紫外漫反射仪（UV-Vis DRS）等手段对TiOF₂花状纳米球进行表征分析，并通过实验探究了不同条件下TiOF₂对甲基橙染料废水的光催化降解性能。在300 W氙灯模拟太阳光照射2.5 h条件下，质量浓度0.5 g/L TiOF₂光催化剂对初始质量浓度20 mg/L、pH呈中性、体积为100 mL的甲基橙染料废水在20 ℃反应条件下降解效果最佳，催化降解率可达97.3%。此结果说明所制备的TiOF₂光催化剂对甲基橙染料废水具有良好的光催化活性。     

创新开展新时期科技名词规范化工作,努力发挥支撑服务作用

科技名词规范化工作具有深厚的历史基础和现实需要,是支撑科技创新和经济社会发展的一项基础性系统工程。当前,中国特色社会主义进入新时代,我们要深刻领会“新时代”的丰富内涵,深化认识科技名词规范化工作的特殊意义,创新开展各项工作,更好肩负起新时代赋予的历史使命。     

Theoretical construction in physics – The role of Leibniz for Weyl's ‘Philosophie der Mathematik und Naturwissenschaft’

This paper aims at closing a gap in recent Weyl research by investigating the role played by Leibniz for the development and consolidation of Weyl's notion of theoretical (symbolic) construction. For Weyl, just as for Leibniz, mathematics was not simply an accompanying tool when doing physics—for him it meant the ability to engage in well-guided speculations about a general framework of reality and experience. The paper first introduces some of the background of Weyl's notion of theoretical construction and then discusses particular Leibnizian inheritances in Weyl's ‘Philosophie der Mathematik und Naturwissenschaft’, such as the general appreciation of the principles of sufficient reason and of continuity. Afterwards the paper focuses on three themes: first, Leibniz's primary quality phenomenalism, which according to Weyl marked the decisive step in realizing that physical qualities are never apprehended directly; second, the conceptual relation between continuity and freedom; and third, Leibniz's notion of ‘expression’, which allows for a certain type of (surrogative) reasoning by structural analogy and which gave rise to Weyl's optimism regarding the scope of theoretical construction.     

New theories for new instruments: Fabrizio Mordente's proportional compass and the genesis of Giordano Bruno's atomist geometry

The aim of this article is to shed light on an understudied aspect of Giordano Bruno's intellectual biography, namely, his career as a mathematical practitioner. Early interpreters, especially, have criticized Bruno's mathematics for being “outdated” or too “concrete”. However, thanks to developments in the study of early modern mathematics and the rediscovery of Bruno's first mathematical writings (four dialogues on Fabrizio's Mordente proportional compass), we are in a position to better understand Bruno's mathematics. In particular, this article aims to reopen the question of whether Bruno anticipated the concept of infinitesimal quantity. It does so by providing an analysis of the dialogues on Mordente's compass and of the historical circumstances under which those dialogues were written.